Zelensky loses if he doesn't counter attack, and he loses if his counter-offensive fails. The only way forward for Ukraine to manoeuvre in preparation for a diplomatic settlement.
When I last wrote about the war in Ukraine, I made the case that the biggest threat to Ukraine’s success on the battlefield is itself. Zelensky’s model of warfighting hinges on the perception that the fight is winnable, so any commitment to a large-scale battle would be a potential breaking point. If Ukraine’s backers were to get the impression that Kyiv has no real chance at winning the war and is only prolonging the inevitable then it would not make sense to continue to send expensive high-tech gear to Ukraine, and without expensive gear from abroad Kyiv would have a much-reduced chance of winning the war. In essence, Zelensky’s winning streak is contingent on his ability to continue winning. I warned about the dangers of Ukraine overplaying its hand in February but I failed to account for the fact that it may underplay its hand.
Since February virtually nothing appears to have happened on the front lines. The media has reported rumours of a coming Ukrainian counter-offensive but it has so far not come. A non-existent counter-offensive would be almost as bad as a failed one. If I’m right that Ukraine’s fate rests on its ability to perform well on the battlefield then it would be natural for Ukraine’s civilian and military leadership to come to the same conclusion. It makes sense for them to be hesitant about the gamble a large scale counter-offensive would entail; that being said stalling is also not an option. As the conflict in Donbas between 2014 and 2022 showed, Ukraine as the defender is the clear loser in any frozen conflict on its soil. Therefore Kyiv is trapped between the rock of conductive offensive military action and the hard place of risking a frozen conflict. I don’t envy Zelensky in having to make these sorts of tough choices.
Every time I write about the war in Ukraine I feel the need to caveat my analysis by saying that I would want Ukraine to win, but that our world is far from ideal so our wishes are at best only tangentially related to what we think is likely to happen. I don’t envy Zelensky and his colleagues as they have to navigate a conflict where it would seem to an outside observer that all the material factors are stacked in Russia’s favour. But the Ukrainians need to launch a counter-offensive in order to keep their momentum in terms of foreign support.
In a scenario where both inaction and action risks leading to defeat it makes sense for the Ukrainians to be overly cautious. As much as it may be difficult for Kyiv to accept I think the only sustainable path forward for Ukraine is to plan a counter-offensive where the objective is to get into a better negotiating position rather than one where the objective is to liberate all occupied territory. I hate to say it but the best realistic outcome for Ukraine would come from a negotiated peace. When action and inaction both raises the risk of triggering a negative feedback loop on the battlefield there is too much to risk for Kyiv to continue fighting until the defeat or victory is complete. Ukraine is stuck in a position where it can’t fail in its coming counter-offensive and it can’t not launch the attack, but even if the coming counter-offensive is a resounding success, Zelensky will face the same dilemma next time the opportunity is ripe for a counter-offensive. The only lasting solution to the war in Ukraine is a negotiated peace, and time is not on Ukraine’s side. Let’s hope Zelensky understands that no matter how he plays his hand on the battlefield, the real game is diplomatic.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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