Here's the Ipoleco guide to gauging how the war in Ukraine is going.
Is Ukraine winning or losing? Since the war in Ukraine began two years ago the facts on the ground have largely remained the same while the narratives built on those facts have shifted widely. Everything from Russia’s victory being imminent to a total stalemate to Ukraine winning completely has been the consensus view in the West at one point or another. Western press is clearly biased in favour of Ukraine – for understandable and laudable reasons – but given how much reporting focuses on Ukraine’s successes compared to its failures it is easy to get an incomplete picture of how the war is going. Seeking out different perspectives is usually the solution, but Russian press is neither free nor honest so it is difficult to get the Russian side as well. Here is my model for cutting through Ukrainian spin and actually gauging how the war is going:
1. Determine which side has the material advantage
War requires a lot of material, food, medical supplies, and ammunition; and that’s before we get to the issue of people to use said equipment. On pretty much every single measure of material factors Russia is in the lead. Russia has more men, more munitions, and more money than Ukraine even with all the help the West is providing.
2. Determine support for continuing the war
War is only feasible if the population can tolerate it. Therefore one needs to determine to what extent the people of Russia and Ukraine support or oppose the continuation of the war. In Ukraine the support is high, as you would expect from the defending side in a war of aggression. In Russia the tolerance seems high. It is hard to get a real sense of how Russians see the war but as far as I can tell there is no large, well organised anti-war movement to put pressure on the Kremlin. Support is better than tolerance, but tolerance will suffice; especially in cases where the frontline is far away from people’s everyday lives.
3. Determine who is advancing
One of the most simple checks to see which side is currently doing well is to see which side is advancing. Advancing doesn’t necessarily mean winning, but it is hard to win a war without advancing. Currently Russia is advancing, albeit slowly and costly.
4. Determine which side is closer to realise its stated goals for the war
With Russia official war aim being “de-Nazification” of Ukraine it is practically impossible for the Kremlin to fail given that as far as I am aware, there aren’t a lot of Nazis in Ukraine and there never were. Ukraine’s stated aim on the other hand is to take back control of everything lost since 2014, which they are further away from than ever in the sense that they are continuing to lose control of towns and villages every few months.
With this simple model in mind it is clear to see that Russia has the material advantage, enough tolerance from its population to continue, the initiative in the sense that it is advancing, and is closer to its goals than Ukraine. As many twists and turns as there have been throughout the war the fundamentals have barely changed. HIMARS, the various counter offensives, and the various mobilisations have not fundamentally changed anything. Unless and until something changes in the factors making up this model Russia will continue to be winning.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson