With only six months to November, who is the most likely Democratic candidate? And do they stand a chance against Trump?
This week I want to share my thoughts on the Democratic primaries and caucuses leading up to the American election in November. I haven’t spent any significant time in the US and therefore do not know the American political culture well enough to make more than general predictions regarding outcomes, and as an outsider to American democracy I don’t feel I have the right to make value judgements on which candidate would be the best or worst. With those caveats out of the way I’d like to present the two candidates I believe to have the best chances of winning, and to give my take on how each of them would fare in a Presidential race against President Trump.
Most of the reporting on the 2020 American election I’ve seen pegged Joe Biden as the front runner for the Democratic nomination, but that was before the Iowa and New Hampshire results were in and at the time of writing the leading candidates are Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg would in my opinion be good for American politics in the sense that he’s fairly young, in contrast to most of the other candidates. But I doubt he’ll stand a chance for two reasons; he’s fairly unknown, and being openly gay could get more attention from the media than his policy platform which might makes his campaign seem focused on identity issues instead of sachpolitik. Bernie Sanders on the other hand stands a good chance of winning, his main rival in my view is Michael Bloomberg. Bloomberg has an incredibly well-financed campaign but Sanders has great name recognition so the race might be quite close.
If Bloomberg wins the nomination, I think he’ll struggle against Trump as Bloomberg will be easy to paint as a typical politician, after all Bloomberg is a rich old white man from the east coast with a background in business, and Trump’s campaign in 2016 did well by clearly differentiating Trump from politicians. Still, I think Bloomberg would have a slightly better chance of winning than Trump as he’d most likely be viewed as the less extreme option.
If Sanders wins the nomination, I think the turnout for the 2020 election will be the determining factor. From what I’ve heard, Americans turn out in greater numbers when they have someone to vote againstthan when the have someone to vote for. Given how unpopular Trump is on the left and how unpopular Sanders is on the right the race will probably be difficult to predict. If voters decide that a choice between the plague and cholera means they’d rather stay a home then Trump is likelier to win in my view, but if voters decide that it’s crucial to vote then Sanders is likelier to win.
Have you been following the American election? Who do you think will run against Trump in November? Will they have a chance? I’d love to hear your takes, and if you found this post interesting consider sharing it with a friend or co-worker. If you’d like to read more of my posts you might like last week’s post about the Phillips curve. Come back next week for a new post!
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover Photo by Rosemary Ketchum from Pexels
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