What would the different parties interested in the war in Ukraine want out of a peace deal? And are they likely to get what they want?
Say what you will about Trump, but he is a man of action. A month into his second term he is now trying to summon up the political and diplomatic capital required to settle the war in Ukraine. Of course, it is impossible to know whether anything will actually come of it. It could simply peter out or blow up, but assuming that a deal is in the cards, what can we expect, and more importantly what would Russia, the US, the EU, and Ukraine want out of a deal?
Without knowing what Putin’s nor Trump’s wishes are exactly I’m bound to be wrong here, but it is still a useful exercise. Below I have listed what I think the four most important parties with strong interests in the war will want out of a peace deal. I don’t expect Ukraine will get much of what it wants out of a deal, but I still think it is useful to consider what it would ideally want to receive to evaluate the deal, if there is one. With no further caveats, here are my guesses as to what everyone might want out of a peace deal.
1. Putin’s Dream Deal
Russia as one of the belligerent parties wants peace. That might sound outrageous given that Putin started the war, but it is unquestionably true that Russia has spent immense amounts of blood and treasure on this endeavour which could be more productively allocated to other priorities. It also goes without saying that Russia will get to keep its current battlefield gains and Crimea in any peace deal. Russia is winning on the battlefield and has the option to just continue the fighting if it isn’t happy with what the other negotiators are offering. In addition to that I think Putin wants the following, split into three categories: legal changes in Ukraine, territorial changes, and international commitments. Even in a dream scenario though, there is no way that Putin gets everything he wants, to gauge whether any eventual deal was good for Putin see if he gets more than one of the asks from each category plus retaining his gains, and control over the Donbass.
Legal Changes
Enshrining the rights of Ukrainian Russian speakers in law or the constitution, instituting a cap on the size of the Ukrainian armed forces probably at somewhere between 50-150 000 troops.
Territorial Changes
Getting parts of or the entire Black Sea coastline, or at least strategically important areas possibly including snake island, getting all the annexed but not yet controlled oblasts, getting back the occupied areas of Kursk oblast.
International Commitments
Lifting of all sanctions, a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, a guarantee that Ukraine will never join the EU.
2. Trump’s Dream Deal
I have never really understood what the US wanted to achieve with their support for Ukraine. Of course, there is a moral win in making sure Putin’s conquering armies fail, and there is the old standard Great Power motivation of being a thorn in a rival’s side. But I cannot see any strategic aims with the conflict which means that Trump’s measure of success in a negotiated peace will be how little he gives up. The only real asks Trump might have are geopolitical, essentially trying to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, or to get Russia on board with putting pressure on Iran or North Korea.
3. von der Leyen’s Dream Deal
While it is unclear whether the EU will get to attend a peace conference, there are strong asks for Europe which means it is worth listing them to see whether a deal, if there is one, is good or bad for Europe. Given how brash the second Trump administration has been towards Europe, there are real risks of drastically deteriorating relations across the Atlantic if Trump strikes a deal which screws over Europe. Of course, Europe is not a monolith and some of these asks are directly contradictory as for example Poland and Germany have different interests. For the sake of convenience (my convenience to be clear) I will list all of Europe’s asks and we can sort out who asked for what and why after a deal is struck. I think the best way to sort out what Europe wants is to split the asks into economic and international commitments.
Economic Asks
Getting cheap oil and gas flowing west again, getting anyone but Europe to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, shutting down all Russian energy exports to Europe, making sure Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea for international shipping, lifting sanctions on Russia.
International Commitments
Getting EU peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, keeping the option of Ukraine joining NATO open (even though it will never actually happen), getting Ukraine to stop mass migration after the war is over, keeping the option of Ukraine joining the EU open (even though it will never actually happen), making sure Ukraine remains an independent entity and not a puppet state.
4. Zelensky’s Dream Deal
Unfortunately, no party in these negotiations are as unlikely to get what they want as Ukraine, and I believe strongly that Ukraine will not get any say whatsoever in what is decided, instead I expect Zelensky to be presented with a fait accompli he will have to deal with. Still, here’s what I think Ukraine would want out of a peace settlement, aside from full control over its territory according to 1994 borders. I will group these ask under two headings, self determination, and reconstruction as those are the overall goals Ukraine has in the post-war phase. As I don’t expect Ukraine will get much I think it makes sense to be more granular than just saying self determination and reconstruction, instead listing specifics which all combined would amount to full self determination and an effective reconstruction.
Self Determination
Not being banned from joining the EU and NATO, not letting Russia change any of its laws, being allowed to retain a standing army, being allowed to pick their own successor to Zelensky, not having to reintegrate the Donbass republics in a federal system, no Russian peacekeepers, no Russian military or naval bases, getting UN or Western peacekeepers, continued sanctions on Russia, right to pursue a nuclear weapons programme.
Reconstruction
War reparations, guaranteed investment from the West, forgiving Ukrainian debts, freedom of movement and working rights for Ukrainians in Schengen, some kind of development fund for Ukraine financed by the West.
What Might a Deal Look Like
With some ideas about what the different parties might want we can start to puzzle together different deals. For example, we can imagine a scenario where Russia gets to keep its gains, gets sanctions relief, and gets Kursk back in exchange for putting pressure on Iran and agreeing to EU peacekeepers in Ukraine. Or some other configuration of asks. The main point with this post is to establish what I think might be on the table in a negotiation to use as a base for comparison if and when a deal is struck.
If I am to speculate on the rough outlines of a deal I think Trump will once again turn out to be a much weaker negotiator than he thinks. Remember the USMCA and the phase one trade deal? Lots of talk, meagre results. The way I see it Trump is very good at the theatrics needed to be an effective negotiator but lacks the detail-oriented nature need to succeed in complex negotiations. I’m sure he would get magnificent deals in the souks of Marrakech or at flea markets, but high stakes diplomacy is quite a bit more complicated. It is much easier to estimate what a plate or old jacket is worth than what it would be worth to Putin to get sanctions relief. There is also the added wrinkle that Trump is essentially gambling with borrowed money here, if he arrives at a terrible deal Zelensky will pick up the tab and Trump will go back to Mar-a-Lago. Coupled with the fact that the US has few strong asks and you arrive at a negotiation where I would much rather be the Russian negotiator than the American negotiator.
If there is a deal then the specifics of who gets what are somewhat secondary. As I have been saying since the start of the war, Russia is winning, and will by virtue of its military success achieve diplomatic success in the sense that it gets much of what it wants. Similarly, Ukraine is the clear loser in any negotiation. The question is not who wins but what the final score ends up being.
There have not really been any classic big production peace conferences between major powers like the USA and Russia since Yalta; in hindsight a somewhat ironic location in light of the current war. If the war in Ukraine ends with diplomats and statesmen pouring over maps at a fancy hotel then it confirms my thesis that the world is multipolar, and it marks a return to capital G capital P Great Power politics. The cold war interlude is over, the world is once again up for grabs. By men with guns, and by men with maps. That's a bigger deal than anything Trump and Putin can negotiate.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by Lara Jameson from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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