Why doesn't Putin care about the civilian casualties in Ukraine when he has said that Russians and Ukrainians are brothers, and that Kyiv is the birthplace of Russian civilisation?
Ukrainian soldiers, and civilians have all died in the hundreds or thousands after just a few weeks of fighting. Every day there are news of which Ukrainian cities were bombed, and of how normal life is but a distant memory for the 40 odd million people who lived in Ukraine before the war. Most in the West seem to think that the high civilian death toll is a deliberate tactic; the Economist describes Russia as having a “nihilist brand of warfare”. As a tactical choice in a larger campaign with the aim of the total annexation of Ukraine ultraviolence is a very bad idea, so why isn’t Russia more concerned with avoiding civilian casualties?
The obvious reason is intimidation. Make it abundantly clear to Ukraine’s military and civilian leadership that it is the people of Ukraine who will bear the brunt of the cost of the war and it might be more palatable for the Ukrainian leadership to agree to a political settlement. Ending the war to protect civilians is a good off ramp for the Ukrainian side but it also reflects poorly on Russia. Obviously warring neighbours seldom have stellar relations, consider India and Pakistan, the two Koreas, Ethiopia and Eritrea etc., but civilian casualties certainly won’t help. There are however, other potential reasons why the Russians are so unconcerned about the fates of civilians.
Firstly we have to consider Hanlon’s razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." It could be that the Russians are simply bad at waging war without indescriminate bombing. The early phases of the invasion has shown that the Russian forces were not adequately supplied or briefed so it’s hardly a stretch to imagine that other elements of the Russian armed forces are prone to mistakes. I’m no military expert, and I’m not too sure on exactly which systems have seen use in Ukraine but it could also be that the Russians are using less sophisticated arms than the US did in Afghanistan and Iraq, and less sophisticated and computerised weapons feature more risk of human error and just generally worse accuracy. I don’t think Hanlon’s razor explains all the civilian deaths, and it certainly doesn’t absolve Russia of any guilt, but it could well be a contributing factor.
Another contributing factor could be the Western sanctions. Russia is quickly becoming a pariah state in Europe and North America and it might think that it has nothing to gain by being careful. Why compromise military effectiveness for the sake of saving civilians when both the Ukrainian people and the West already hate you? If Russia sees any political or military benefit to being harsh on civilians it is not being constrained by Western opinions anymore since there are few more aggressive steps for them to take short of military intervention. I don’t mean to say that the Western response was bad, but sanctions are complex and the threat of worse relations, in this case politically and economically, can’t be sustained after the sanctions are in place; the threat was followed through on and thus no longer affects Russia even if the consequences of the sanctions will.
It could also be that Moscow knows how hard the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis was for the EU, as evidenced by Belarus’ scheme to invite people from the Middle East to Belarus only to force them over the border to Poland. I don’t think Russia is deliberately aiming to create refugees to make life hard for the EU, I’m sure if Russia wanted to disrupt the EU it could do so in a less roundabout way, but I think Putin and company might consider large flows of Ukrainian refugees coming in to the EU an externality which could be positive for Russia.
In short, there are unfortunately several factors which combine to create an environment where Russia doesn’t feel the need for compassion for Ukrainian civilians, in spite of all Putin’s talk of how Russians and Ukranians are brothers. Much as it pains me to say it, the ultraviolence in Ukraine looks set to continue until the war ends.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about the war in Ukraine here, or why I don't think the Metaverse will catch on here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Specna Arms from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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