Just like Kyiv, Tel Aviv finds itself at war. What does that mean for Ukraine, and for the world?
Last week I made the case that Ukraine will face a tougher environment going forward as its allies lose interest in a war which seems to head towards attrition and slow advances. In particular the US is dealing with intense political dysfunction which practically means less support for Ukraine, at least until the next budget and appropriations are passed. In light of this, this weekend’s events in Israel and Palestine piles on more trouble for Kyiv.
Ukraine needs Western support far more than Israel does, but unfortunately for Zelensky the US is more deeply committed to supporting Israel than Ukraine. It’s unclear whether Hamas’ attacks on Israel are a brief wave of violence or the start of a drawn-out war, which determines whether this really is a problem for Zelensky. If this Israel-Palestine conflict broadens to include not just Hamas and the Gaza Strip but also the West Bank then it could become a major engagement lasting months, and in such a scenario there is a real worry for Ukraine of having the US split its attention.
As I’ve explained elsewhere on the blog, it appears that there is currently a defender’s advantage in military operations meaning that it is generally easier to defend terrain than to attack it. This supports the idea that a richer and better armed Israel will be able to repel the attackers quickly. However, if Israel launches an operation in the Gaza Strip itself, or if another party enters the war Israel could find itself needing to go on the offensive which would probably mean a longer and bloodier war.
Whether the war in Israel is long or short, I think it will be a problem for Ukraine for one reason or another. Either Ukraine’s allies need to support two wars at the same time with arms production and stockpiles already stretched with Israel being a closer partner to the US. Or Israel’s quick victory adds ammunition for those in the West who argue that the return on investment on supporting Ukraine is poor.
It's hard to speculate on the reasons why Hamas decided to attack. The anniversary of the Yom Kippur war was likely a contributing factor, as was probably the internal conflicts Israel has recently been embroiled in over prime minister Netanyahu’s judicial reforms. It’s a worrying sign for the world though, with wars in both the Caucuses and Israel and Palestine in just a few short weeks. The world is getting more violent, as one might expect in the long and arduous transition from unipolarity to multipolarity. States are fighting states again on the regular, and for Ukraine that’s a very bad sign.
Ukraine is dependent on outside help. When the world gets less stable and there are more wars those who would back Ukraine have more conflicts to pick a side in, and Zelensky’s appeal to the world rests on the inherent injustice of Putin’s attacks. But is the war in Ukraine more unjust than the war in Israel, or than the Azerbaijani capture of Nagorno-Karabakh? Luckily, I don’t have to make those kinds of determinations. But there are diplomats and military officers who do, and that’s a problem for Ukraine.
If you liked this post you can read my last post about the war in Ukraine here, or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by cottonbro studio from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
Comments