Trump the Madman

Is Trump using the madman theory or is he just mad? Can we even tell?

An oft invoked phrase when discussing Trumpian foreign policy is ‘The Madman Theory’. Richard Nixon’s idea that seeming like a madman was the only way to credibly deter the Soviets in an era of mutually assured destruction; only a madman would intentionally trigger global nuclear war. Trump’s various threats and tirades make him seem a madman to many observers, but the eternal question surrounding Trump is whether the madness is method acting or the soul laid bare. The only way to know is to consider outcomes exclusively. And since outcomes will take time to manifest, one must have faith.

In a recent episode of the podcast Rational Security the conversation drifted to the topic of the madman theory, when one of the hosts Quinta Juresic asserted that Trump is not actually putting the theory into practice but is genuinely crazy, and I have had the thought stuck in my head since: how could you possibly know?

Being a madman and successfully conning others into thinking you are a madman looks exactly the same. The only surefire way to make the distinction is to peer in Trump’s head, but since that is not an option, as an observer one is forced to make post hoc judgements. The goal of madman theory is to genuinely convince your adversaries that you are insane, but that illusion cannot survive if it is only projected outwards and never inwards. So being irrational and self-harming is perversely evidence both for and against the idea that Trump’s madness is staged.

Take the recently announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada: it is an unprovoked attack which many experts expect not to achieve its intended aim. It is something only a madman would do.  If it somehow, down the line achieves some material benefit to the US it will have been expertly implemented, textbook madman theory. If it doesn’t it was actual madness.

The madman theory therefore is a foreign policy strategy uniquely unsuited to a democratically elected leader. Being a madman can be a successful strategy in international politics, but it requires a base of support with a lot of faith in you. When you are an autocratic leader it is far easier to keep up the madman veneer while reassuring your base of plutocrats of your sanity. In a democracy the required faith is a big ask, not least given how it will harm the leader and their party’s electoral chances.

Trump specifically is also a difficult man to have the required faith in. He has not covered himself in glory in the years since his last stint in power. Ironically, pursuing the madman theory is something only a madman would do.

If you liked this post you can read a previous post about AI here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!

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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.

Written by Karl Johansson

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Cover photo by Polina Zimmerman from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson