It's hard not to see Trump's conviction leading to more polarisation and less faith in the judiciary.
It is not hard to understand how historic it is that Donald J. Trump was convicted for a crime a few short months away from an election where he is one of two contenders. But it is hard to understand what exactly he did that was illegal. The gist is that he labelled payments to his fixer Micheal Cohen as business expenses when they were really for his presidential campaign. As I have argued extensively on the blog, I think that prosecuting Trump on those charges was a mistake. Obviously, no one should be above the law, but it is extremely important to make sure that any prosecution of a major politician is understandable for the average voter so that the trial does not come off as politically motivated. That is a high bar to clear; doubly so in the case of Trump who so often deliberately undermines faith in America’s institutions.
Judicial independence is so important because of what it represents about a society, namely that it is fair. But when it comes to politicians it is crucial to consider not just what they represent but who. Many of Trumps voters – whether they are hardcore election deniers or moderates who reluctantly vote for Trump because Biden is worse – think that Democrats and progressives are motivated by a disdain for conservatives. They are not completely wrong. How many were saying “not my President!” in 2017? How many said that Trump would destroy the country in 2016 and 2020? And how many has questioned if Trump is mentally sound enough to hold public office?
The more the Democrats use Trump’s conviction as a campaign issue, pointing to him being a felon as a reason not to vote for him, the more both sides will distrust each other. As much as Trump is not the model of an upstanding citizen, the truth is that a lot of people like him, and feel that attacks on him are attacks on them. How could it not be an attack on his voters when Democrats portrays him as the devil, surely they wouldn’t think very highly of Trump’s voters by extension. And it is easy to circle the wagons when you are under perceived attack, even when the guy you are defending is a bit shady.
I am sure that Trump broke whatever law it was, he has proven himself to be willing to disregard all manner of rules and norms. But the law is not everything, and it has serious political ramifications to convict major politicians. The only time it would be completely risk free to charge a politician would be if the politician in question committed an easily understandable crime, and there being overwhelming evidence for their guilt. But as mentioned, it is difficult to explain what Trump did and why it is and should be against the law. That spells trouble ahead for American politics. As I often say, perceived intentions are just as important as actual intentions. But maybe I am underestimating the average American voter. Either way, further increased polarisation will be the result if it is indeed difficult for his political rivals to explain why what he did was bad and illegal.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by KATRIN BOLOVTSOVA from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson