Half-assing being tough in the Ukraine crisis hands the Kremlin a propaganda victory.
I argued in my predictions for 2022 that Russia will in some form militarily intervene in Ukraine in the coming year (more on that here if you’re interested). But I’m beginning to second guess that assessment. My core argument for a Russian intervention is that it would be a national security disaster for Russia to have a NATO member right on its border, and as security issues always and everywhere trump economic issues the US’ threat of devastating economic sanctions on Russia should it attack Ukraine doesn’t phase the Kremlin. Economic sanctions would be bad, but Ukraine taking a clear pro-Western anti-Russia stance would be orders of magnitudes worse so President Biden’s threats are not enough to make Russia reconsider. The optics of the whole affair has made me partially reconsider though.
Russia wants Ukraine to be a Russian ally, or at least neutral, and while the US would like to have Ukraine be a Western ally it clearly doesn’t care about the issue enough to make sure Russia backs down. In the last week or so the UK has not only issued a warning against traveling to Ukraine and a recommendation for British citizens to leave, but also withdrawn some diplomatic staff. The British government writes: ‘The [Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office] advise[s] against all travel to Ukraine. [...] Due to the growing threat from Russia, the FCDO has taken the decision to temporarily withdraw some Embassy staff and their dependants from Kyiv.’ The BBC reports that the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea have made similar recommendations. CNN reports the following on a phone call between US President Biden and Russian President Putin: ‘The call between the two leaders comes hours after the US moved some of its forces out of Ukraine and ordered the evacuation of most of its embassy staff on Saturday as fears mount that a Russian invasion of the country could take place in the next few days. The moves were yet another sign that the US fears Putin could order an invasion at any time, just one day after Biden's national security adviser warned Americans in Ukraine to leave and that military action could begin with an aerial bombardment that could kill civilians.’ All in all, it’s clear that the West is taking the threat to Ukraine very seriously.
Which brings us back to Russia and their objective of keeping the Ukrainians on their side or neutral. Russia’s stance has always been that the troops massed on Ukraine’s border are simply conducting exercises and constitute no threat. The Guardian reports that joint Russian and Belarussian exercises have been going since the 10th of February which are slated to end on the 20th. It seems to me that the Western hysteria and lack of firm action plays right into the Kremlin’s hands. Surely the Russians could come to Kyiv and make the following case: the West is blowing things out of proportions. Countries have the right to conduct military exercises and the prospect of a Russian attack is absurd, it wouldn’t attack a neighbor with such deep historical ties unless the situation was truly dire; like in 2014 when Russia claims there was a risk of Ukrainian ultra-nationalists committing genocide against eastern Ukraine's Russian speaking minority. Furthermore, the West has shown its true colours; when the chips were down and they believed a real invasion was possible ‘any day now’ they didn’t commit to a military defence of a country which is going to be a NATO member in the future according to the Bucharest Declaration of 2008. The US decided to withdraw forces from Ukraine when they thought an invasion was likely, and the best the Germans could do was send helmets.
Needless to say, I don’t think that the Russians are in the right, they actively chose to escalate and create the current diplomatic crisis, and I don’t believe in the argument I just outlined. Rather, I think the weak response from countries which ostensibly want Ukraine to join a common defence pact enables Russia to get a propaganda victory by showing how the West is only interested in talking of defending Ukraine, not actually defending Ukraine. Ironically, I think that Russia would’ve had to attack Ukraine to get what it wanted if the West had simply kept quiet. The threat of an invasion made the West feel a need to appear tough but by trying to be tough without actually committing to Ukraine’s defence the West appear weaker than if they had done nothing, which in turn might make an invasion unnecessary.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover Photo by Uğurcan Özmen from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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