Kamala Harris' win in the recent debate could help her polling numbers, which could be a problem for her.
Kamala Harris was seen as the winner of last week’s presidential debate in America. With the excitement around her candidacy still running high, especially given how different her debate performance was to her predecessor, things are looking rather good for the Democrats. Who would have thought that swapping out an incredibly old and unusually unpopular candidate for another one would be a good idea? Debates often do not materially change elections, so it remains to see whether Harris’ debating skills will have been a help. But if they are helping her in the polls I think that could be a worrying sign for November.
To illustrate, consider what happened to Labour in the UK. Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives were incredibly unpopular and it was widely expected that Labour would win, as they did, to the point where the question was how large a majority in Parliament Labour would have, not who would win the election. What ended up happening is that Labour won with a far lower share of votes than was expected. In the 2019 general election Labour received 32.1% of the votes and got 262 seats in Parliament, and in 2024 they received 33.7% and 411 seats. An article from The Guardian from February this year states that Labour was polling at 43%, a level which held for most of the year; The Economist reported that Labour was polling at 42% the week before the election, a 20 point lead over the Conservatives. The difference between this year and five years ago illustrates the problems with the first-past-the-post winner takes all system in the UK, but it also highlights how winning can be demoralising. The key statistic from the 2024 general election is that turnout was down by almost 8.5 percentage points. Labour’s win was taken for granted so plenty of people didn’t bother showing up to vote.
In turnout elections like the ones in the UK and the US, winning can be a problem. Doubly so when you look to win big. So if Harris gets another boost in the polls it could be bad for Democratic turnout, which could see her snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I wonder if a version of that isn’t what happened to Hillary Clinton. She was up against a mad man, and all the polls were in her favour. Why waste a perfectly good afternoon when the result is already clear?
So far the polls are close enough to make sure people will turn out, but if the trend of Harris being more popular than Trump continues there is a risk that Harris’ supporters will not turn out for what they think is a done deal.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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