Why would Putin blow up the pipeline when he controls the on and off button?
Ukrainian troops have had remarkable success on the battlefield in the last couple of months. The Russians seem to constantly be on the back foot with the Ukrainian military recapturing towns and territory, while also sabotaging Russian infrastructure like the main bridge linking Crimea to the mainland. There has also been another high profile sabotage recently, the explosion which damaged the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Unlike the Crimea bridge though, the Western press seem to think that was Russia’s doing. To me though, that makes no sense. Russia seems to have the most to lose from Nord Stream being broken both in terms of money and in terms of diplomatic options to end the war in Ukraine. Russia’s leverage over the EU comes from its so-called ‘energy weapon’, i.e. being able to cut off supplies of natural gas which makes it difficult for many EU states to produce enough affordable energy to heat homes and run industry in the winter. As you’re no doubt aware, Russia has already cut the EU off so it makes absolutely no sense to destroy the pipeline. Why blow up the pipe when you control the on and off button?
Ukraine strikes me as the big winner from the sabotage. They would probably be scared that the EU would stop supporting them if the winter without Russian energy got bad, so they might compromise with Putin to make it through winter. Now that’s no longer an option. Still, I don’t think it was the Ukrainians either. Given the distance between Ukrainian ports and the Baltic sea it strikes me as logistically unfeasible for the Ukrainians to sabotage Nord Stream. Instead I think it’s more likely that it was one of the states on the Baltic coast. The Baltics, Poland, and Finland would all love to see the Russians lose in Ukraine and one of them could have sabotaged Nord Stream in order to make sure that the EU continues to support Kyiv.
I don’t know more than anyone else, and I’m only speculating here but I really think it makes far more sense for an ally of Ukraine to have sabotaged Nord Stream. That being said, if it was Russia it wouldn’t be the first time Russia has shot itself in the foot this year. Nor the third time.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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