There have been some talk of a second wave, in my view the only thing a second wave would change is the narrative.
Speaking anecdotally, it seems that the fears surrounding Covid-19 has started to recede lately. Countries are opening back up, stock markets have recovered and the usage of the term “unprecedented” has decreased slightly. While this is certainly great, the latest data from the US shows signs that fears of a second wave might not be unfounded. In this week’s post I want to discuss the concept of a second wave, and what it might entail.
It seems almost inevitable that Covid-19 would start spreading faster again after lockdowns were eased, after all the virus was only contained not eradicated. One question is how to define a second wave, picking a time when the first wave ended and the second started seems a tad arbitrary as the infections didn’t stop in most of the rich world; the rate of increasing infections decreasing isn’t the same as a decrease in overall infections. Leaving the issue of how to classify a second wave aside though, it seems infections are going to be increasing again, at least in America. I believe this will once again shift the global public opinion of Covid-19 to be more pessimistic, especially if the US decides to shut down businesses and schools again. Stock markets across the world will probably go down again if there is an uptick in cases in America even when many countries have the virus under control. The mood surrounding the pandemic has shifted from pessimism to optimism rather quickly and despite all the talk of a “new normal” and other Coronavirus buzzwords it seems to me like many have not realised that Covid-19 wasn’t just a temporary problem but a disease which will stick around.
I don’t buy the idea that the pandemic will change the very core of our societies and that life on Earth will never be the same; humans are great at adapting and the more things change the more they stay the same. Still, the pandemic will have short- and medium-term consequences which we can only speculate about. My guess is that Covid-19 will stick around for many years but that we will find treatments which mitigate its symptoms which will allow normal life to resume. If there’s a second wave in America, I expect many more to catch on to the fact that diseases stick around which will change the narrative from “V-shaped recovery” back to “new normal”. In the end though, societies have dealt with epidemics before and will do so again, and the biggest thing a second wave would change is the narrative.
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Written by Karl Johansson
Cover Photo by George Keating from Pexels
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