Ukraine is launching a counter-offensive, will it change anything?
Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine has been somewhat of a mixed bag for Russia so far. On one hand it has been able to occupy about one fifth of Ukraine’s landmass, and has been able to take control of land connecting the Crimean peninsula with Russia. On the other hand, it lost the battle for Kyiv and by all accounts it has lost tremendous amounts of military equipment and soldiers. This week the Ukrainian military has been conducting operations around Kherson, a major city in the south of Ukraine, currently occupied by Russia. It remains to be seen whether Ukraine has the capability to recapture Russian occupied territory, it seems that so far during the war that the defenders have had a much easier time than attackers. Assuming the Ukrainian push for Kherson is successful, would it have any chance of changing the course or outcome of the war?
I’m skeptical of the idea that Ukraine can meaningfully push back Russia from occupied territory on two grounds, firstly I suspect that Russia has spent too much time, too many resources, and too many lives to let Ukraine have any occupied territory back, and secondly I think that Russia has such an advantage in conventional military capabilities and nuclear weapons which makes it impossible for Ukraine to really ‘win’ the war; the best option for Ukraine is not losing more than it already has. I’ve been quite clear in previous posts that I generally dislike psychoanalysing world leaders, especially Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump precisely because of how often people claim their actions are due to cognitive defects rather than legitimate decisions, but I will make an exception in this case because of how pervasive cognitive biases like the sunk cost fallacy is. It makes sense for me that when a sunk cost is as dear as human life that one would be more susceptible than usual to believe that those who died’s sacrifices would be meaningless if the war didn’t continue.
While I support the Ukrainian people’s struggle for freedom and sovereignty I think it’s imperative to be realistic about the Ukrainian military’s prospects. Paradoxically it might provoke the Russians to escalate if the Ukrainans were to successfully counter-attack. Not to sound defeatist but I suspect that the best case scenario for Kyiv is to hold fast at the current frontlines and hope for a diplomatic solution. By that logic then, the optimal use of resources for the defenders isn’t to counter-attack but to dig down and wait for the Russians in order not to trigger the sunk cost fallacy making Putin double down. Am I too pessimistic? Perhaps, but I’d rather be positively surprised than negatively surprised.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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