The Ipoleco Definitive Guide to 2025*.
Last years’ predictions were not very successful, but with a new year comes new opportunities. As is tradition I need to start off by saying that predictions are hard, especially about the future. The name “Definitive Guide” is tongue-in-cheek, and I do this mainly as a fun exercise to hopefully improve at predicting the year to come. With that said, here are my predictions for 2025, number three is extra spicy.
Prediction 1: Split in the EU
With Kyiv having stopped gas from Russia from transiting through Ukraine and Germany heading for a snap election where Ukraine-sceptic parties are predicted to do well, the stage is set for another EU clash over the war. It is increasingly clear that Ukraine will not win the war, it will not retake the Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, let alone Crimea. At the same time, Russia is conducting sabotage across Europe, targeting undersea cables. So far pro-Ukraine forces have won the argument with the backing of the US, but things have changed a lot the last two years. Meanwhile, with things being what they are in Syria while Israel continues its military action there is the risk of increased Middle Eastern refugees sparking another bitter argument about migration. Furthermore, Bulgaria and Romania, two of the poorest countries in the EU, will finally become full Schengen area members in 2025 which will pour further fuel on the migration fire. Not to mention the fact that both France and Germany will hold elections next year and there is practically no hope of the EU getting anything done next year.
Prediction 2: Texas California Split
With Donald Trump back in the White House the partisan splits which has defined American politics for the last decade will shift as Republicans go from the disloyal opposition to the pinnacle of power. Just like how Democrats and the institutions their voters cherished entered resistance mode when Trump became president last time, I fully expect them to do so again this time. The difference is that Trump has now proven to be able to realise conservative fantasies like reversing Roe v Wade so progressives will be even more on edge. My prediction is that this fear will manifest in state houses in Democratic states which will mean that the regulatory drift between states like New York and California on one side and Texas and Florida on the other will grow further. It is difficult to know what will be the specific issue next year, but I think another policy split on the same magnitude as abortion access will emerge in the coming year.
Prediction 3: Settlements in Gaza
I wrote in 2023 that I think the October 10th attacks were a case of catastrophic success; Hamas could never have dreamed of being as successful as they were and thus could not possibly prepare for the overwhelming response from Israel. Similarly, I think Israel’s wars on Gaza and Hezbollah, its escalation of settler violence on the West Bank, and its occupation of more Syrian territory has been far more successful and has met far less resistance than it would have thought. Netanyahu and his far-right allies feel vindicated in their support for widening the scope of the war, while the incoming Trump administration is signalling that it will be even more pro-Israel than Biden’s government was. As much as Netanyahu seems to be running out of road on his time in power with corruption trials and low approval ratings, I think he will try to leave a fait accompli for his successor in Gaza. It was no small feat for Ariel Sharon to demolish settlements in Gaza in 2005, and given West Bank settlers’ influence in the Knesset it might prove a political nightmare to try that trick again. There is a perverse incentive for Netanyahu to take radical action while he still can, and if he is going to lose power (and possibly go to prison) anyway then the political consequences of reestablishing settlements are impotent to stop him.
As always, I’d love to hear your predictions for the year to come, and feel free to argue with my predictions in the comments! Have a great 2025!
If you liked this post you can read a previous post where I evaluated my predictions for 2024 here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by Matheus Bertelli from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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