The Ipoleco Definitive Guide* to 2024
Once again a new year is here so it is time again to make my predictions for the year to come. As is tradition, I need to start by saying that predictions are hard, especially about the future. And that these predictions is mainly an analytical exercise meant to slowly but surely improve my predicting. As my record show, I’m hardly infallible, but I did quite well last year so hopefully the streak continues. With that out the way, here are my three predictions for what will definitely happen in 2024.
1: Peace in Ukraine
After two years of fighting in Ukraine it has become clear that Ukraine will not be able to take back the currently occupied areas, let alone Crimea and the parts of the Donbass which were annexed in 2014. Ukraine has fought valiantly, but even with all the support the West can muster the defender’s advantage has just been too strong for the smaller state to win against the larger. Until Ukraine’s summer 2023 counter-offensive there was serious hope that Ukraine could win, but now it is clear that winning would take Ukraine many years, a prospect few, if any, of its allies are willing to underwrite. By the end of the year the fighting will have stopped. I’m not sure if it will be a frozen conflict, a formal peace treaty, or just a ceasefire but no matter the formalities, Russia will have won the war. If I were to guess though, I think there will be some sort of international summit where the Americans, Europeans, and Russians agree on a settlement in Ukraine without Zelensky having anything to say about it.
2: 2016 2
With the grudge match between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the upcoming American election being all but officially confirmed I think Trump will win. If the democrats pick a candidate with less baggage than Biden Trump will probably lose, but in a head-to-head between the old rivals from 2020 I think Trump wins. As controversial and disliked Trump is, he also has a real supporter base of people who want him specifically to win, and I think that will prove to be stronger support than just wanting anyone but him.
3: The AI Bubble Bursts
AI has been on everyone’s lips in 2023 and the conversation has been wildly distorted with alarmist doomsday predictions about the end of humanity. As more and more people start to use AI-assisted software such as Microsoft’s co-pilot or Google’s bard, and as more and more businesses will have real discussions about how they can utilise AI I think the hype will die down. People will realise that it is a flawed form of software rather than the best thing since sliced bread. Sam Altman will lose his halo and we won’t have to suffer through anymore hyperbolic doomsday predictions.
As always, I’d love to hear your predictions of the year to come, and feel free to push back on any of the predictions I made here in the comments. Best of luck in 2024!
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by cottonbro studio from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson