The Ipoleco Definitive Guide* to 2023.
Every year I like to try my best to predict major events in the twelve months to come, and this year is no exception. As is tradition, I need to preface this by saying that predictions are hard, especially about the future. And I need to point out that I have a less than stellar track record in the year predicting business. I also want to point out that the point of this exercise is to practice an analytical skill rather than scoring easy points so I will try to make specific predictions while also avoiding consensus views of what’s to come. With that being said, here are my three predictions for what is definitely going to happen in 2023:
1: The Empire Strikes Back
The war in Ukraine surprised plenty of Western commentators, but what surprised even the Kremlin was how well the Ukrainian army has been able to withstand the Russian attack. It felt like everyone was sure that Kyiv was doomed to fall in the first month of the conflict when it broke out, but the sentiment surrounding the Ukrainian army shifted dramatically to the point where people think they have a real shot at winning the war now. I still think that Russia will win if it decides to dedicate the resources it needs. It’s a much larger country than Ukraine in terms of population, geographical size, and economy so it has powerful advantages. Putin will not accept a humiliating defeat and with Moscow raking in cash from energy exports while Ukraine is being bombed there’s every reason to think that a long war benefits Russia. I think the momentum will shift back in favour of Russia during 2023. And while I won’t speculate on whether or not there will be a peace settlement, I think that if there is, then Russia will get a fair bit of land and some hefty concessions from Kyiv.
2. The Covid Reckoning
After years of zero-covid China is finally opening up, seemingly without having prepared its healthcare service with enough resources and its people with booster shots. I think the Chinese people will be angry with the Communist party next year, and that they will show that by protesting in large cities. From my point of view it seems like the way President Xi handled the reopening will inevitably lead to a larger mistrust of the Communist party. If the Chinese healthcare system can handle the reopening with minimal death and suffering then the brutal lockdowns large parts of the country had to endure at one point or another were overkill. If the reopening results in chaos and deaths in the thousands then the party caused those deaths by deviating from a strategy which had proven to be effective. The current reopening could have been successful if it was gradual and if there was a major vaccine drive beforehand. With the way it was implemented I think Xi has created a lose-lose scenario, and the Chinese people will hold him and the rest of the party accountable; irrespective of which of the losing outcomes comes true.
3. 2020 2
In the world of American politics I think 2023 will be a rather uneventful year. The midterms are past and the split congress will be less productive than usual. With Donald Trump set to face major legal battles in the coming year or years coupled with the fact that many seem to think that he has lost some of his dominance over the Republican party the scene is set for a less dramatic presidential election in 2024. Therefore I think president Biden will announce his intention to stand for re-election. Given that preventing Trump from being elected was the raison d'etre for Biden's campaign in 2020 I think he'd step aside for another Democrat were Trump in a stronger position, but as things stand going into 2023 I believe Biden will try to cement his legacy by trying for a second term. The only exception is if he was to have a major health issue including a hospital stay in which case I think he'd retire after his term is up.
As always, predicting the future is mostly a fun exercise, but I'd love to hear what you think in the comments? Are my predictions reasonable? What do you think will happen in 2023? Let me know, and best of luck for the coming year!
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about Twitter here or the rest of my writings here. It would mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
*Citation Needed
Cover photo by Lucas Pezeta from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
Comentários