Two days into the new year I will try to predict some of the important events to come in the coming year. I don’t pretend to be an expert and I fully expect to be wrong, the point here is to practice rather than to be correct. With that out the way let’s get to the predictions.
First up Brexit, I believe that there will be a deal between the UK and the EU. I don’t believe the deal will be comprehensive or what Brussels or London wants but I think that a deal will have to be made. Speculating on what will be in the deal is probably futile but I will say that there will be some sort of solution to make sure that the Irish border issue doesn’t reignite violence between Catholics and Protestants. Indeed this is the reason why I believe there will be a deal, to prevent violence in the Republic and Northern Ireland. Trade issues are important but at the end of the day security issues are always the top priority
Secondly, US President Donald Trump will not be impeached. While plenty of Americans dislike the President and would like to see him leave office and while the Mueller investigation seems to get closer and closer to the President it seems to me that he will most likely sit out his term. If strange or repulsive statements would have a significant effect on the President, then he would’ve had to leave office a long time ago, and bad policy is common to all politics. It’s of course not impossible that there will be a final straw breaking the camel’s back or that he will be found to have committed a crime but I reckon he’ll make it through that crisis just like he has made it through all the other crises.
Lastly, I think that the EU will continue to struggle, definitely politically but possibly also economically. Individuals might have strong ideological reasons to believe in and support the European project but states act according to what benefits them. There are many benefits to being a member of the EU but all of the states involved in the EU have different reasons for being in the club which makes agreeing on a course difficult which makes intra-EU political problems practically unavoidable. The more interesting struggle arises if there is a pan-European recession. There are numerous benefits to economic integration but it also makes recessions a regional problem rather than local. Sooner or later the business cycle naturally enters a recession and we should be due for one soon, assuming nothing more explosive happens like Italy having a debt crisis.
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