There is a lot of speculation about if Putin will be ousted over the debacle in Ukraine. He's not going to, here's why:
With Russia ceding the city of Kherson back to the Ukrainian and retreating to the eastern side of the Dnieper it’s safe to say that the war in Ukraine has so far not gone the way Putin would have hoped. The retreat is just the latest in a string of embarrassing tactical mistakes like losing the battle of Kyiv, and having to mobilise new recruits to send to the front. With Putin’s war so far having resulted in 100 000 casualties, an exodus of liberal middle class Russians, and wide reaching sanctions it’s fair to ask how popular president Putin is; and by extension if we can expect him to stay on as the most powerful man in Russia.
I’ve seen several commentators and news sites speculate that Putin is on thin ice given the mess that his “special military operation” has become. It makes perfect sense to assume that plenty of people in Russia, both in the ruling class and the wider population, would want a change at the top, and having grown up in a democracy one would expect a population dissatisfied with its leadership to want to hold those leaders accountable by letting someone new try their hand at steering the country. Obviously Russia is only nominally a democracy, so the prospect of Putin being voted out of office and him abiding by that result is unlikely to say the least. Still, even in autocratic political systems leaders are still accountable, only to a different set of people than in a democracy. Without any special insight into Russian politics my guess is that there are a lot of people who would be glad to be rid of Putin, both in- and outside the Kremlin. I also think that Putin will stay on as Russia’s president until the war ends, even if the situation on the battlefield continues to deteriorate for Russia.
The reason I think Putin will stay on is that there is no viable alternative at the moment. Putin has no heir apparent, and even if there was one I doubt they’d want the job right now. Putin is stuck in a situation similar to the one Theresa May found herself in during her tenure as British prime minister. May was an unpopular prime minister and there was at several times during her time in the role speculation that she would be ousted but much like with Putin now there was an ongoing mess no one wanted to inherit: Brexit. Russian politics might look on the surface to be uncertain and possibly volatile but I think the situation is in fact very stable. That’s just the calm before the storm though, if the war ended tomorrow Putin might well be ousted before the week is up. Putin could manage to turn the situation in Ukraine around, and if he does I expect him to stay on until he dies of natural causes. He needs to win for that to be possible though, and I think it’s this mixing up of personal and national interests that makes Putin so intent on continuing the fight. Any problems at home caused by the war can be dealt with if Putin is in power, but keeping power necessitates winning the war which creates domestic problems. If the economy is wrecked by the war then from Putin’s perspective that’s fine since he’ll have all the resources and political power he needs to fix the economy if he wins the war; creating an ouroboros of incentives and externalities, of solutions and problems.
It might be better for Russia to cut their losses and negotiate a peace deal, it might be better for Russia to give back some of the newly annexed territory, it might be better for Russia to treat Ukrainian civilians compassionately, but the most important thing for Putin is to win the war. The war in Ukraine is in that sense a case study unfolding in real time in why autocratic rule is worse than democratic rule: it mixes personal and national incentives to a point where the incentives for a single man leads to more or less violent consequences for nearly 200 million people. Putin should be held accountable for his actions but so too should the political system which created him.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about Elon Musk and Twitter here or the rest of my writings here. It would mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by Дмитрий Трепольский from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
Comments