The US & UK had a massive wave of populism rise around the same time, so how come it seems to have subsided in London but not in Washington?
With 2024 being the Year of the Vote with 50 countries having had elections the two I think about the most is the US and the UK. In many respects kindred societies with ample historical, economic, cultural, linguistic, and political links they made almost diametrically opposed choices. One chose chaotic populism and the other centrist institutionalism. One chose the right, and one chose the left. With both countries starting a new era defined by populism around 2015-16 where they seemed to travel on parallel paths, they have now diverged markedly. Why?
The boring but obvious first explanation lies in institutional design, and in this case especially in the design of the electoral system. As long-time readers will know, I think the design of US democracy is uniquely terrible and is screaming for an update to get rid of anti-democratic systems like the electoral college and the senate. But to be fair to America, Britain has many of the same issues: a two-party system due to first-past-the-post voting with single person constituencies, a bi-cameral parliament, and over the course of the last decade or so parties which were hijacked by fringe personalities.
The real reason why Britain got over its populist interlude while American politics is still defined by it is that British politicians heard what the voters meant and not just what the voters said. I argued in a previous blog post that Brexit was in fact a great success for the English working class as they have become the centre of British politics again. Both America and Britain had voters throwing a tantrum in 2015-16, in the UK politics realigned towards those feeling neglected while politicians in the US focused on Trump and his policies.
It is a common analysis to attribute both Trump and Brexit to dissatisfaction, and in both cases some pressure was released just by getting to vote for what the establishment insisted was the bad option as a protest. But Leave voters got attention from both parties while Trump voters were often written off as deplorables. In the UK the protest was heard, whereas in the US the protest was suppressed. Is it any wonder that one society has been able to move on while the other hasn’t? There is no need to throw a temper tantrum if both parents are paying attention.
In that context the American election results were somewhat heartening. It seems as though class is becoming an ever more important fault line in American politics, and while the Democrats have so far failed to live up to it, they clearly see themselves as the natural party for the worker. It remains to be seen whether American politicians can mimic their British counterparts and focus on working class issues in the years to come. If so, chances are good that the temperature will decrease across American politics. If not, we should expect more disruptor type politicians to be successful.
American politicians must reach an agreement over immigration, the way British politicians did over Brexit, i.e. that we may not like it but the people have made their voices heard and we need to respect that. Democracy is, after all, about listening to the people and respecting their wishes. The Year of the Vote has featured the whole range of respect for democracy from sham to genuine, but as the divergence between the US and the UK proves, democracy does not end when the ballots close.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about French politics here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by Lina Kivaka from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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