Most people seem to think that Russia hasn't been doing well so far in the war with Ukraine. What are the consequences of Russia's weak showing?
I’m always skeptical of drawing sweeping conclusions from ongoing events but I think it’s worth considering what the war in Ukraine might mean for international relations going forward. In contrast to so many Western commentators before the war I believed Russia would intervene militarily in Ukraine, but like so many other commentators I thought Russian victory would be fast and more or less complete. The fact that Kyiv hasn’t fallen a month into the war doesn’t mean that it won’t and probably shouldn’t have surprised anyone. The 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia took 12 days and according to Wikipedia the Georgian army had about 20,000 troops, Ukraine had at the beginning of the year about 200,000 troops. Ukraine is about 8.5 times larger than Georgia in area and had a population more than 10 times larger, so this was always going to be a more difficult war for the Russians. That being said, it seems experts and journalists have been surprised at how the conflict is going, and the dominant narrative at this stage of the war is that it has been a poor showing from the Russian armed forces. Indeed, it seems like Putin himself thought the invasion would be a simple affair with Russian troops being home before the proverbial Christmas. Needless to say, that’s not exactly what happened. Right now I’m more interested in discussing the interpretations of how the war is going than trying to cover the events; after all, interpretations of events can be and often are just as important as the events themselves. Here are two possible takeaways from the first month of the war.
First, finding out that the Russians aren’t as scary as previously thought makes it easier for Russia’s neighbours to take an aggressive stance. I would expect more bellicose rhetoric from Poland vis-a-vis Russia after the war if the current trend continues. Most of eastern Europe feel safer if it turns out that the Russian army keeps being as disorganised as it has been so far, and it’d be interesting to see if Belarus dares to act more independently if the war doesn’t go Moscow’s way. Second, offensive wars could come to be seen as too costly to be practical. The American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan has made it very clear that holding territory when the locals don’t want you there is a difficult and costly project. But if Ukraine manages to hold out long enough to create a stalemate or drawn out war of attrition would-be conquerors from Beijing to Ankara will take notice, and make sure to only pick fights they’re absolutely sure they’ll win with a wide margin. There has been plenty of speculation about what the war in Ukraine means for Taiwan, and which narrative of why Russia hasn’t fared well could have an impact on the likelihood of a confrontation between Taipei and Beijing. If the consensus view is that the Ukrainians are doing well because defending territory is relatively easy with current military technology then Taipei would feel a lot safer than if the consensus view is that Russia has struggled due to having a weaker army than was previously believed. That being said, I don’t think the war in Ukraine is a major factor in the Chinese Communist Party’s thinking regarding Taiwan, and I don’t think that an attack on Taiwan is likely for a couple of years.
Again, the conflict is not over and it’s anyone’s guess how long it will drag on, but the interpretation of events can be just as important as the events themselves so it’s worth thinking about how we talk about what’s happening in Ukraine. Hopefully there will be a political settlement in the near future, but who knows? We might still be talking about fighting in Ukraine come Christmas, which is on January 7th for both Ukrainian and Russian Orthodox churches.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about the war in Ukraine here, or why I don't think the Metaverse will catch on here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Mathias P.R. Reding from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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