Tensions are high in the eastern Mediterranean between NATO members, can the alliance survive?
The Trump administration have faced criticisms from many expert groups; on everything from climate change to public health. One of the most common critiques from the American national security and foreign policy communities is on the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). President Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and strict demands for NATO members to commit more to defence spending is seen by some, including Chancellor Merkel, as risking to undermine the alliance. Personally, I think NATO is dead in all but name, though due to the actions of Russians, not Americans.
NATO has been around for 70 odd years and by all accounts been a very successful alliance, after all its article 5, which states that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all has only ever been invoked once. As mentioned though, NATO is not in good shape. Recently Greek and Turkish ships collided in the eastern Mediterranean, and the rhetoric was quite bombastic from Turkey. France decided to send a few ships and fighter jets to the region in response. Hardly the friendly cooperation one would expect from treaty allies. The eastern Mediterranean is a good example of intra-NATO conflicts, including Greece and Turkey taking different sides on Cyprus and France and Turkey backing different sides in the Libyan civil war. There are other conflicts though, the most important in my view being on how the alliance treats Russia. Large parts of eastern Europe which joined NATO after the fall of the Soviet Union feel, justifiably, that Russia is their greatest security threat and protection from Russia has for many been the rationale for joining. For southern European states like Italy and Spain, and France, Turkey causes more headaches with Russia being too far away to be a real menace.
You might assume that alliances are built on trust and cooperation, but the foundation of an alliance is a common enemy. NATO hasn’t had a common enemy for 30 years and just because it has taken reality its sweet time to catch up to NATO doesn’t mean that it won’t. Given the high tensions I suspect the eastern Mediterranean might just be the flashpoint which makes NATO’s death official. If Turkey and Greece, or Turkey and France continue to antagonise each other there might come a time when states have to pick a side.
Trump might seem the villain in NATO’s story, especially if the alliance collapses under or soon after his term in office, but in reality Gorbachev made the biggest individual contribution to NATO’s death when the Soviet Union collapsed under his leadership.
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Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover Photo by Martin Dlugolinský from Pixabay
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