Macron lost a prime minister, and looks set to lose another. Has centrism failed him?
Monsieur Emmanuel Macron has a new prime minister after his last one was defenestrated by the National Assembly, a fate more than likely to befall François Bayrou, the new one bientôt. The surface level reason why Bayrou’s predecessor Michel Barnier was ejected was that he tried to pass a budget without letting the National Assembly vote on it, but the deeper reason is Macron’s failed summer gambit where he called new elections in hope of consolidating his position in the Assembly. It was a clear example of the futility of building a truly centrist movement in a multi-party political system.
It is superficially enticing to pursue centrism. It promises reasonable and stable politics without outrage or radicalism; obvious positive qualities in an increasingly unstable world. And there are electoral advantages as well. Tacking towards the centre increases the potential voter base, which is especially important in electoral systems which do not feature the first-past-the-post constituencies where slim margins at the ballot box do not get translated into large amounts of seats in parliament.
The main drawback to centrism might at first seem to be that it is inherently unsexy. There are no revolutionary centrists, no centrist manifestos, and no bands agitating for centrist ideas. But it also has the severe drawback of constantly being in a two-front war. Any centrist policy is open to attack from both left and right, whereas a party which has clearly picked a side is more likely to get support from the others on the same side of the political spectrum.
Macron is the world’s highest profile capital C centrist. And he embodies a lot of what centrism aspires to: leadership, charisma, and competency. But he also embodies another aspect of centrism: arrogance. There is a certain inbuilt arrogance in thinking that you are above the petty infighting between left and right. Unlike specific policy ideology cannot be optimised or technocratically solved. Left and right have not just assembled a “perfect” list of policies because doing would mean abandoning some of the principles their movement is founded on.
Unlike other movements there is no utopian vision underpinning centrism, just the promise of a well-run system. In any unforeseen policy debate Marine Le Pen can look to her nationalist ideology for answers, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon can look to his leftist ideology for answers, but Macron has no guiding star shining that strong. To be fair, Macron’s France has put on two magnificent displays of just how well run it is this year in the form of the Olympics and the reopening of Notre Dame. But that will not save him when new elections will be called next summer.
Macron has been a truly remarkable politician. But his party does not seem to have much of an identity aside from him; and what identity could it make for itself given that it has no clear ideology to organise around? France will surely abandon its flirt with an independent centrist movement at the middle of its political spectrum. The history of the fifth republic indicates that centre-right and centre-left prime ministers find it easier to avoid no-confidence motions.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about Biden pardoning his son here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by Ali Müftüoğulları from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
Comments