There's a growing contingent of people who think Ukraine will be able to not only withstand Russia's attack but actually win the war. Is that realistic?
The story around the war in Ukraine has made two U-turns already in the three months since it began. Before the war broke out it seemed like everyone was sure that the positioning to attack was an easily spotted bluff. While I was one of the relatively few who thought the attack would come I was certainly surprised how large and ambitious it was. In the first couple of days of the war the consensus view went from no attack incoming it’s just a bluff to Kyiv is going to fall any minute now; two very different narratives. Most recently though, there are some who think that Ukraine can not only hold Kyiv but also recapture the territory it has lost since the start of the year, and the territory lost in 2014. Is that realistic? Unfortunately, I don’t think so.
Russia’s poor showing in Ukraine surprised a lot of people, but it’s important to distinguish between Russian weakness and Ukrainian strength, if Russia is fighting poorly because their opponents are strong there’s a good chance that the Ukrainians can win whereas if the Russians are fighting poorly because they’re disorganised then Russia could feasibly improve over the course of the war. Given the reports of Russian forces running out of petrol and food and that Ukrainian president Zelensky is speaking to parliaments across the world urging everyone who will listen that Ukraine needs more and heavier weapons it seems to be a case of the Russians not being adequately prepared instead of the Ukrainians having the more powerful military. It’s also worth noting that Russia’s military is an all-volunteer force whereas men in Ukraine are not allowed to leave the country as the might be needed in the war. If Russia were to officially call up their reserves they would add another 2 million soldiers to the fight. War is difficult to predict, as mentioned I thought Kyiv would fall in the first week or two, but Russia is much larger than Ukraine in terms of territory, population, economy, and has a larger military. Russia has made poor decisions in terms of tactics and strategy but as much as Ukraine is looking strong all material factors are favouring Russia. The longer the war lasts the more material factors are going to trump tactics and momentum.
The consensus view of how the conflict has been wrong every time so far, and I bet this latest fad of thinking Ukraine will win is wrong too.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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Cover photo by Mathias Reding from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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