On September 23rd Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives, announced that the House is beginning impeachment proceedings against President Trump. I won’t get into the details of the events which prompted the impeachment inquiry and as I’m not an expert I won’t try to explain the legalities of the case, instead I want to make two other points. Firstly, the impeachment inquiry will not actually lead to the President being impeached. That doesn’t mean that the impeachment process won’t have important effects though, I believe the President will attempt to deflect attention from impeachment by conducting sensationalist foreign policy, while important substantive policy, both foreign and domestic, will not move substantially.
There have been only three previous impeachment inquiries before this current one. In February 1868 the House of Representatives launched formally began the process to impeach Andrew Jackson which took until late May 1868 resulted in Jackson being acquitted. In late October 1973 an impeachment started against Richard Nixon which ended in August 1974 with Nixon’s resignation. Finally in October 1998 an impeachment process against Bill Clinton was initiated which ended in February 1999 with Clinton’s acquittal. The point I want to illustrate with these historical examples is that impeachment takes time, and is unlikely to result in the sitting President being removed from office. A quick note on details and legalities, both Jackson and Clinton were impeached but acquitted in the Senate which allowed them to finish their terms. In short, impeachment proceedings will probably not lead to President Trump being removed from office, especially not given how close the 2020 election is, after all it would be easier to let the electorate decide if the President should be removed from office or not.
As I stated earlier, just because impeachment probably won’t ultimately lead to the President’s removal from office doesn’t mean it won’t affect the White House’s authority. Why risk listening to the orders of a figure which might in the near future be removed from office and charged with federal crimes? Furthermore, the legislative branch will have to prioritise working on impeachment over other issues as there’s an inherent time limit for such a process. The President will struggle with any action which would require Congress’ approval, and the most important area in which President’s have a lot of power without having to go through Congress is foreign policy. I expect American policy towards Iran to be more aggressive as a way to deflect attention from the political chaos at home. I’d also expect more high-level summits with foreign leaders, like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un. I doubt any thing substantive will come from these summits, should the other leaders decide to go that is, but that really isn’t the point either. In fact, I believe Trump will deliberately use provocative language or propose outrageous without the intention of actually make real policy changes, instead to try to shift the conversation. Whether or not that would work remains to be seen.
If you liked this post you might like last week's post about the 2019 oil crisis, or this one about commercial negative interest rates. I'd appreciate any feedback, and if you'd share the blog with a friend or coworker who might find it interesting. You can find me on Twitter and keep an eye out for a new blog post next week.
Written by Karl Johansson, Founder of Ipoleco
Cover Photo by kendall hoopes from Pexels
Comentarios