Ukraine is looking likely to become a candidate for EU membership. Is the EU going to be back to 28 members soon?
As supporting Ukraine in any way possible is in many parts of Europe seen as a moral duty, the discussion has increasingly shifted from what weapons and in which quantities to how states can support Ukraine through non-military means. Last week the European Commission officially endorsed giving Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova the status of European Union candidate states, presumably as a sign of EU support for the states currently most threatened by Russia. Would letting Ukraine join the EU be a good idea? And should we expect Ukrainian EU membership to become a reality?
First let’s discuss whether or not letting Ukraine join the EU is a good policy. Naturally, granting candidate status isn’t the same as accepting a new member, but it’s worth considering what the effects of Ukraine gaining full membership status would be as the decision to make a country a candidate should be an indication that the EU intends it to become a member eventually. In my view, letting Ukraine join creates several problems for Brussels: it makes the accession process seem very arbitrary, it risks being seen as provocative in Russia, and it risks creating more EU-skepticism by enabling easy migration from war-torn Ukraine to the richer northern and western parts of Europe. It also creates two benefits: it sends a strong message of solidarity with Ukraine to Russia, and it opens up a very large new market for European companies which will have a very strong demand for their products and services to aid in the rebuilding if there is an independent Ukraine after the war. The first issue, of being arbitrary, is in my view the most grave. There are currently five official candidates for EU membership and they have all been candidates for more than ten years so if Ukraine were to be fast-tracked for accession that would certainly annoy the other candidates, some of which have gone quite far to appease the EU for a chance of joining. North Macedonia has been a candidate for 18 years and officially changed its name from Macedonia to North Macedonia in order to settle a dispute with Greece as accession is conditional on not having ongoing disputes; so to accept Ukraine while it is actively fighting a war with Russia would make the EU look arbitrary to the other candidates. Realpolitik often trumps stated values in international relations, but I don’t think the benefits from accepting Ukraine outweighs the reputational costs of forgoing the normal candidacy process, especially when there are other drawbacks from having Ukraine be a member.
Based on this I don’t think the European Commission actually wants Ukraine to become a member state. As I’ve written about previously on the blog though, that sort of support for Ukraine can be escalatory as the intent is irrelevant in the context of escalation, all that matters is how the other side interprets one’s actions. Leaving the question of possible escalation aside, if the EU doesn’t have good reasons to make Ukraine a member, why would the European Commission recommend Ukraine be accepted as a candidate? In short, it’s a low cost option for the EU to show Russia that it is unequivocally on Ukraine’s side of the conflict. Accepting Ukraine as a candidate has in my view a low risk of being interpreted as an escalation by Russia which makes it effective messaging without risking serious repercussions. It remains to be seen whether Ukraine really does become a candidate, but if it does expect it to be stuck in the candidacy stage for a long time. Turkey has been a candidate for 23 years, and as mentioned North Macedonia is in second place with 18 years and counting. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukraine’s accession process, if it becomes a candidate, takes a decade or two.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Sources:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3790
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-eu-membership-candidate-status-matters-for-ukraine/
Cover Photo by Eberhard Grossgasteiger from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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