Netanyahu is playing a dangerous game as escalation takes two.
Israel’s president Binyamin Netanyahu is not a cautious man. He has shown a disregard for civilian casualties in Gaza and Israel has undertaken some brazen attacks on not only Hamas but also Iran since the war began. The biggest and most brazen was a strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus which killed several people, including a high-ranking member of Iran’s military. It was obvious that Iran would have to respond to such an attack, no self-respecting country would take such a cowardly attack on a diplomatic facility lying down. So far Israel has managed to be both skilled and lucky in their war on Hamas in the sense that they have avoided a regional war where one or more states intervene on the Palestinian side. With this latest strike however, I think Israel has really overstepped the line in a way which has a serious risk of escalation.
The revolutionary regime in Teheran has been a sworn enemy of Israel since the revolution in 1979 which I would guess is reason enough for the hard liners in Iran to motivate an attack. However, it seems to me that the internal political dynamics in Iran makes it particularly hard for the regime to back down from the provocation from Israel. Iran was rocked by major protests after the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 which lasted for a few months. Furthermore, Islamist terror organisations have been committing major attacks including one at a memorial for Qassem Soleimani, an assassinated military leader, where almost 100 people were killed and almost 300 injured. The clerical regime is under a lot of pressure which makes it more likely to take decisive actions to prove to both foreign adversaries and internal critics that it is strong.
At the same time, it is hard to deny – even for Israel’s strongest supporters – that bombing embassies is wrong. The sanctity of ambassies is a cornerstone of modern diplomacy, and violations of that sanctity is not usually the behaviour one expects from well meaning and democratic governments. When the US accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 it caused a major diplomatic incident; and that was between two somewhat friendly states over an accidental bombing. Israel’s embassy bombing was deliberate, and a clear escalation in the simmering animosity between it and Iran.
Iran’s response then was hardly surprising. Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel, most of which were reportedly shot down by Israeli missile defence systems. Iran said in the UN that the matter can be deemed concluded according to The Economist, so it is I think fair to conclude that Iran is not interested in a war. However, that same article quotes Netanyahu as saying: “I have set a clear principle: Those who harm us, we harm them”. Opening the door for another round of retaliation is plainly stupid, doubly so when Israel is the aggressor.
As I keep saying on the blog, escalation is about perceptions rather than intent. Iran likely didn’t see its missile barrage as an intended escalation, otherwise it wouldn’t have said that the matter is concluded at the UN. Netanyahu saw things differently, and he likely won’t see an Israeli retaliation in kind as escalatory. But escalation is a game for two, and Netanyahu’s actions so far in the war in Gaza does not look like those of a man who is able to see things from other perspectives, otherwise he would have been able to sympathise with the starving Gazans who got caught in the crossfire for simply being born in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Escalation is not inevitable. It is a choice from both sides, and now the ball is back in Israel’s court. Will they be able to see the folly of risking a second war over their own bombing of an embassy? Only time will tell. I hope war is avoided, there is more than enough suffering in the world already, but I can’t say I’m confident it won’t happen. Israel and the wider Middle East would be safer if someone less reckless than Netanyahu was in charge. Few politicians have displayed the carelessness, corruption, and disregard for human suffering which has defined his leadership in the last few years.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson