Maybe Brexit was a tremendous success, at least for some.
With Labour far ahead in the polls for the coming British general election while simultaneously no Nigel Farage party making a big splash to split the right it is worth asking what happened to the Brexit movement? The last decade of British politics has been defined by Brexit, first whether it should happen, then how, and finally how Britain should act now that it is done. Brexit was prophesised to be an economic catastrophe of epic proportions, but even as it has caused significant discomfort the damage was never as bad as the doomsayers thought it would be. But while it has probably done real net harm to Britain at large, with specific industries and localities being hit extra hard, Northern Ireland comes to mind for example, it has been an unqualified success for one specific group: the English working class.
Before the referendum economists and industry types were quick to point out that leaving the European Union would introduce serious barriers to trade which would have real effects on not just British industry but also consumer prices. There were also those who made the point that any trade deal the UK could negotiate on its own would likely be worse than one which the EU negotiated for it, even considering the myriad special interests the EU had to deal with, considering just how much more leverage the EU would have in any trade negotiation. In short, the economic drawbacks for the UK were real, and while the issues were complex I have stopped subscribing to the idea that they were too complex for the common Briton to understand or have a meaningful say in. Indeed, I think the Leave voters were astoundingly successful in achieving their goals; even though those goals may not have been articulated by anyone at the time.
The most compelling read of the result of the referendum was that it was, like the election of Donald Trump across the pond, a show of dissatisfaction. In the neo-liberal 90’s and 00’s New Labour and Thatcherite Conservatives agreed on a lot, and the politics of the time was almost as harmful to traditional working class interests as the politics of the 80’s had been. After so many years of choice restricted to which evil was lesser the electorate was raring to show its disapproval. The Brexit referendum was a perfect opportunity. And one it put to full use.
Before the referendum politics was about austerity, afterwards it became about levelling up. Before it was about the baking sector, afterwards it became about the cozzie livs. The change I believe the Brexit referendum kick-started was the realignment of politicians from courting The City to the people. Again, Brexit has absolutely been an act of self-sabotage for Britain at large, but it has been extraordinarily successful in promoting the English working class’s interests. Even the Tories have been trying to win post-industrial northern constituencies, if that’s not a win for the Leave voters as a block, I don’t know what is.
Labour looks very likely to win the upcoming general election, but Sir Keir is just as interested in winning the working man as Johnson was, so the English worker looks to continue to their reign at the top of British politics for the foreseeable future. In that sense Brexit was a success, if only for a subsection of the British electorate.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by Paulo Scalfoni from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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