Everything is coming up Putin.
Rumours have it that Russia is preparing for an offensive against Zaporizhzhia, while even Volodymyr Zelensky might be open to peace talks. Georgia is implementing Russian-style laws aimed at Western organisations, and in Romania a far right Russophile is leading the polls for president. Trump won the White House and Germany is inching towards an election where parties who want peace in Ukraine without being very fussy about how are going to take a major share of the votes. North Korean troops are in Ukraine and Kursk to learn from the Russians. Everything is coming up Putin.
Well not everything, the economy is still overheating, and it is getting more difficult to get the money needed to entice people to join the army. Still, things are on the whole looking like Russia is becoming a more and more influential player on the global stage, especially in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe.
I wrote last year in September that I thought that Russian power was in somewhat of a recession: like an economic recession it was a temporary slump which would in time right itself. I guessed the end of the war would be the end of the recession, but we are currently seeing an upswing in spite of the war continuing.
What this means is an open question, but it is safe to guess that Russia will be more difficult to satisfy in any eventual peace settlement with the West and Ukraine. It is also another data point in favour of multipolarity, the idea that the world has three or more Great Powers. I argue these three are the US, China, and Russia in order of importance.
Finally, it is important not to extrapolate linearly. Things can take a turn for the worse for Russia, as indeed Ukraine hopes. We are not seeing an inevitable march of progress but a trajectory built on the back of violence, repression, and sabotage. It has been the winning strategy for now, but every boom has its bust. The recession of Russian power may be over, but it could well come back sooner than you think.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about Trump and Russia here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Comments