The debt ceiling crisis looks to be averted; Kyiv can breathe a sigh of relief.
With Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy having announced a preliminary deal for raising the US’ debt ceiling, it appears the debt ceiling Tango I described last week is over. That being said, the debacle shows how precarious being a US ally can be. What happens to aid for Ukraine and Taiwan if the States default on their sovereign debts? And can you trust an ally with such unstable politics prone to near-crashes? It must be nerve-racking for leaders in Ukraine to watch American politics given how much hangs in the balance for Kyiv. Next year’s election might fundamentally shift Washington’s perspective on the war, and any guarantees from Joe Biden are only as solid if you think Biden’s chances of re-election are solid as well. I’ve been saying since the war in Ukraine started that the fundamental factors like population, geography, and economy favours Russia, and that foreign support is what has kept Ukraine going so far into the conflict. Much as we all hope to see a Ukrainian victory, episodes like the debt ceiling debacle reminds us how precarious that support is.
America loves talking about its allies, and how it builds international coalitions to solve international problems in stark contrast to other world powers like China and Russia. But those alliance structures and international coalitions were possible due to the structure of the international system after World War 2. In a bipolar world it makes sense to make large alliance structures to counter the other super power, so naturally NATO and the US-South Korean and US-Japanese alliances were formed to counter the Soviet Union. And in a unipolar world it makes sense for smaller countries to jump on the super power’s bandwagon so those alliances remained. Now though we find ourselves in an emerging multipolar world with at least three great powers so the structural incentives have changed.
Even if America had stable and predictable politics, Ukraine could not count on American support as alliances are temporary marriages of conveniences in a multipolar world. But the dysfunctional state of American politics amplifies its unpredictability. In the sixties an episode like the debt ceiling row wouldn’t have mattered all that much to US allies as the need to counter the Soviets was paramount; even if the country was on the verge of default it would have scrounged up money support anti-Communist activity no matter how dire straits it was in. Times have changed though, and now America’s allies are much less of a priority than they were. Nowadays military support is contingent on something as trivial as a debt ceiling deal.
If you liked this post you can read my last post about the debt ceiling here, or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
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