Did the Definitive Guide to 2024* live up to its name?
The year is ending, so now is the time for summaries, lists, and other commentary on the year that’s been. On Ipoleco that means evaluating the definitive guide to 2024*. As is tradition I made three predictions, and unlike last year I was more wrong than right. Of course, the point of the predicting is too have fun and get better, which is why my predictions were pitched at a level where they could come true without being obviously where we were headed. With that said here are my predictions for 2024 with my evaluation under each prediction.
Prediction 1: Peace in Ukraine
After two years of fighting in Ukraine it has become clear that Ukraine will not be able to take back the currently occupied areas, let alone Crimea and the parts of the Donbass which were annexed in 2014. Ukraine has fought valiantly, but even with all the support the West can muster the defender’s advantage has just been too strong for the smaller state to win against the larger. Until Ukraine’s summer 2023 counter-offensive there was serious hope that Ukraine could win, but now it is clear that winning would take Ukraine many years, a prospect few, if any, of its allies are willing to underwrite. By the end of the year the fighting will have stopped. I’m not sure if it will be a frozen conflict, a formal peace treaty, or just a ceasefire but no matter the formalities, Russia will have won the war. If I were to guess though, I think there will be some sort of international summit where the Americans, Europeans, and Russians agree on a settlement in Ukraine without Zelensky having anything to say about it.
Evaluation:
I stand by what I said and think the general analysis is on point. Russia is very much on track to win the war, I was just too early in my prediction. That still means I was wrong, of course, but it was a less serious error than predicting that momentum would reverse. I feel like Christian Bale’s character in The Big Short: “I may have been early, but I’m not wrong.”
Prediction 2: 2016 2
With the grudge match between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the upcoming American election being all but officially confirmed I think Trump will win. If the democrats pick a candidate with less baggage than Biden Trump will probably lose, but in a head-to-head between the old rivals from 2020 I think Trump wins. As controversial and disliked Trump is, he also has a real supporter base of people who want him specifically to win, and I think that will prove to be stronger support than just wanting anyone but him.
Evaluation:
Without getting too in to post-election analysis here, I think I got the American election right because I saw that Trump has fans, not just voters, and that no other American politician does. Biden’s replacement was the one person with the same baggage as him, and someone who could not articulate a clear vision for what America should be like. History always seems inevitable in retrospect but there were times during the year when the general view was that Trump did not stand a chance, so I am happy to have gotten this right.
Prediction 3: The AI Bubble Bursts
AI has been on everyone’s lips in 2023 and the conversation has been wildly distorted with alarmist doomsday predictions about the end of humanity. As more and more people start to use AI-assisted software such as Microsoft’s co-pilot or Google’s bard, and as more and more businesses will have real discussions about how they can utilise AI I think the hype will die down. People will realise that it is a flawed form of software rather than the best thing since sliced bread. Sam Altman will lose his halo and we won’t have to suffer through anymore hyperbolic doomsday predictions.
Evaluation:
I got this almost completely wrong. AI has been just as or even more hot as it was last year; it was even featured in Nobel prizes this year. Again, I think a rebalance towards a saner evaluation of the technology is coming, but it is clearly another failed prediction.
Overall then, 2024’s predictions were weak. It is a good reminder that predictions are hard, especially about the future. Let’s hope next years predictions are a bit more accurate. Speaking of, join me next week for my 2025 predictions.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about populism here or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by Viridiana Rivera from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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