Did the Definitive Guide to 2023* live up to its name?
As is tradition the last post of the year is the time when I evaluate my predictions, this time from the Definitive Guide to 2023. The idea is partly to get better at predicting the future by actively reflecting on the predictions I made and how I can improve, and partly to laugh at how wrong I inevitably was. Last year I was fairly successful (or at least as successful as one can be with one out of three predictions being correct) as I called that the Russians would take military action against Ukraine. I was wrong in my other predictions, and I can’t say I really predicted how big the war was going to get but I’ll take the wins where I get them. My consistent shortcoming predictions-wise is that I word my predictions too broadly, and while I am slowly improving on that front, it is still an issue. With that said, here are my predictions for 2023 with my evaluation under each prediction.
Prediction 1: The Empire Strikes Back
The war in Ukraine surprised plenty of Western commentators, but what surprised even the Kremlin was how well the Ukrainian army has been able to withstand the Russian attack. It felt like everyone was sure that Kyiv was doomed to fall in the first month of the conflict when it broke out, but the sentiment surrounding the Ukrainian army shifted dramatically to the point where people think they have a real shot at winning the war now. I still think that Russia will win if it decides to dedicate the resources it needs. It’s a much larger country than Ukraine in terms of population, geographical size, and economy so it has powerful advantages. Putin will not accept a humiliating defeat and with Moscow raking in cash from energy exports while Ukraine is being bombed there’s every reason to think that a long war benefits Russia. I think the momentum will shift back in favour of Russia during 2023. And while I won’t speculate on whether or not there will be a peace settlement, I think that if there is, then Russia will get a fair bit of land and some hefty concessions from Kyiv.
Evaluation:
I think this one was spot on. While Russia made no major advances this year neither did Ukraine, and after the Battle of Kyiv and the liberation of Kharkiv oblast and the north eastern occupied territory in the first Ukrainian counter-offensive I think a lot of Western media and commentators expected the Ukrainians to be able to continue making gains. What really cements the prediction as being accurate for me is the internal turmoil in Russia. Six months ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s host was marching on Moscow and had essentially captured Rostov-on-Don. Wagner soldiers downed Russian helicopters on Russian soil. And still the Ukrainian couldn’t manage a breakthrough. Talking about the ‘momentum’ in the war is perhaps subjective but come on, you can’t seriously argue that the momentum is favouring Ukraine.
Prediction 2: The Covid Reckoning
After years of zero-covid China is finally opening up, seemingly without having prepared its healthcare service with enough resources and its people with booster shots. I think the Chinese people will be angry with the Communist party next year, and that they will show that by protesting in large cities. From my point of view it seems like the way President Xi handled the reopening will inevitably lead to a larger mistrust of the Communist party. If the Chinese healthcare system can handle the reopening with minimal death and suffering then the brutal lockdowns large parts of the country had to endure at one point or another were overkill. If the reopening results in chaos and deaths in the thousands then the party caused those deaths by deviating from a strategy which had proven to be effective. The current reopening could have been successful if it was gradual and if there was a major vaccine drive beforehand. With the way it was implemented I think Xi has created a lose-lose scenario, and the Chinese people will hold him and the rest of the party accountable; irrespective of which of the losing outcomes comes true.
Evaluation:
I was almost completely wrong on this one. The main thrust of the prediction is that the reopening of Chinese society after the pandemic would lead to social unrest but that broadly hasn’t happened. I think the logic underpinning the prediction was sound, so I’m not sure why it did not come true. The takeaway here then is that I don’t know or understand China as well as I thought.
Prediction 3: 2020 2
In the world of American politics I think 2023 will be a rather uneventful year. The midterms are past and the split congress will be less productive than usual. With Donald Trump set to face major legal battles in the coming year or years coupled with the fact that many seem to think that he has lost some of his dominance over the Republican party the scene is set for a less dramatic presidential election in 2024. Therefore I think president Biden will announce his intention to stand for re-election. Given that preventing Trump from being elected was the raison d'etre for Biden's campaign in 2020 I think he'd step aside for another Democrat were Trump in a stronger position, but as things stand going into 2023 I believe Biden will try to cement his legacy by trying for a second term. The only exception is if he was to have a major health issue including a hospital stay in which case I think he'd retire after his term is up.
Evaluation:
Not too much to say about this one. I was right. I think the main issue with this prediction was that it was too easy. Perhaps it is just that historical events always seem inevitable in retrospect, and the idea that Biden would stand for re-election might have been less certain when I made the prediction. Still, always fun to be right.
Overall then, 2023’s predictions were generally strong. I’m most proud of correctly predicting that Russia would gain the upper hand in the war as that was a contrarian sentiment at the start of the year, and became increasingly so when Prigozhin’s host marched towards Moscow. It’s a good reminder that fundamentals are important in international relations, and to be frank I think the war has been a case study in media bias. It was difficult to find any mainstream Western news that didn’t think Ukraine was set to win in 2023, and which didn’t repeat the idea that Russia blew up Nordstream despite it making no sense. In that sense, these predictions are a useful tool in critical thinking and I would encourage you to make and share your own predictions, as long as you make sure to evaluate the outcomes. 2023’s predictions were strong, next week I’ll share my predictions for 2024 and hopefully those will be accurate too.
If you liked this post you can read a previous post about Ukraine here, or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by Engin Akyurt from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson