I made some bold predictions of what was going to happen last year; how wrong was I?
Last week I gave my predictions for the year ahead, which you can find here if you missed them, and this week it’s high time I followed up on last year's predictions to see whether I got anything right. My prediction score for 2020 ended up being two out of three correct, and believe it or not I have failed to repeat that feat in 2021. I want to acknowledge that I worded my predictions fairly broadly (which is allowed if one can’t get things right by other means), and I aspire to make more specific predictions in the future.
My first prediction for 2021 was: “Political violence will continue in the US”. The 2021 predictions post was written four days after the January 6th riot at and in the US Capitol building and in hindsight the proximity to that event may have tainted my view. To be fair, I don’t think it was an unreasonable guess; former president Trump still hasn’t conceded that he lost the 2020 election and rising inflation and petrol prices as well as covid restrictions have given Americans plenty of opportunities for large demonstrations which could have gone out of hand. I’m glad to be wrong on this point, but that doesn’t make me any less wrong.
My second prediction for 2021 was: “Large economies' budget deficits will continue to be high even after the pandemic is over”. The obvious problem with that prediction was the premise, the pandemic is far from over. Still, I think I deserve a point on this one for singling out the US and Japan as overindulging on stimulus spending; president Biden’s American Rescue Plan had a $1.9 trillion price tag, and then prime minister Kishida’s November covid stimulus package had a $490 billion price tag.
My final prediction for 2021 was: “The pandemic will live on beyond 2021”. Again, the premise is far off. I took it as a given that the pandemic would be over by the end of 2021, and must’ve thought it too banal to offer that as a prediction, instead warning that covid would live on even as the pandemic was over. While I was technically right on this point, I don’t think I deserve any credit for it.
All in all a pretty poor showing from past me. Still, given how gloomy predictions were being wrong was for the better. Let’s hope my 2022 predictions are wrong too.
If you liked this post you can read my last post about 2022 predictions here, or the rest of my writings here. It'd mean a lot to me if you recommended the blog to a friend or coworker. Come back next Monday for a new post!
I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/14/us/biden-american-rescue-plan.html
Cover Photo by Nothing Ahead from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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