I made some bold predictions about what was going to happen this year, let's find out how wrong I was.
The best part about making predictions is to be right and to be able to tell those who thought you’d be wrong “I told you so”, but making accurate predictions relies on having a deep understanding of the field which one makes predictions about and the forces which shape that field, or it requires luck. Based on the predictions I made for 2019 it appears I have neither. Still, to be good at anything one requires practise so in this week’s post I will explain the predictions I made as well as the things I overlooked which made my predictions inaccurate.
My first prediction for 2019 was that the European Union and the United Kingdom would reach some form of deal which would make the Ireland-Northern Ireland border remain open so as to prevent a return to the Troubles. I think the prediction makes sense, the reason why I figured there would have to be a deal is that states always prioritise security issues and the Irish border issue has the potential to return to bloody conflict which both the UK and the Republic of Ireland would want to avoid. The reason why I got this wrong was that I underestimated how weak Theresa May’s government was, and how strong her Tory enemies were. In hindsight it seems almost obvious that May’s government wasn’t strong and stable enough to push a Brexit deal through Parliament but I don’t think who’s in number 10 is the determining factor in what will happen with the Irish border. The last year has certainly been dramatic in British politics with a new PM, a prorogued parliament, and a snap election but in terms of my prediction I think the only thing that changes is the timing. In short, I still think I was right on the substance, the deal just won’t be in 2019.
My second prediction was that President Donald Trump wouldn’t be impeached, which while technically correct (at the time of writing at least, the formal impeachment vote is set for the 18th of December) I still think the fact that articles of impeachment were drawn up means my prediction was wrong. The reason why I thought there would be no impeachment was that a figure as controversial as President Trump would have been impeached a long time ago if it was going to happen. I’m honestly not sure why the Ukraine scandal was grounds for impeachment whereas the behaviour described in the Muller report wasn’t. I suppose the key take away for me here was that I don’t have a firm enough grasp on American political culture to be able to make accurate predictions on American politics.
My final prediction for 2019 was that the EU would struggle with political conflicts, on economics policy on the North-South axis and on cultural values on the West-East axis. While this prediction did come through I think it was too general. Predicting that there will be political conflicts next year is a bit like predicting that there will be rain next year, by which I mean that predicting something inevitable and natural is not meaningful.
In conclusion then, all my predictions were wrong or bad, which I suppose is par for the course when one is ambitious (or perhaps foolish) enough to try make predictions about politics and international relations. Amusingly, my only correct prediction was that I’d be wrong in my predictions, but as I wrote in that post the point was to practise and hopefully this exercise will have honed my skills so that I can make one correct prediction for next year.
What were your predictions for 2019? Were you right? Feel free to share on Twitter @ipolecoblog! If you enjoyed this post consider checking out my previous writing, for example this post about Saudi Aramco’s IPO. Please come back next week for a new blog post!
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover Photo by Startup Stock Photos from Pexels
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