Will this years election be a second 2016?
The news that Joe Biden is dropping out of the race to be America’s next president is a relief. It is a shame that the farcical insistence that Biden was just as fit as ever went on as long as it did, but it is nonetheless a relief that it is now over. I had begun the year by speculating that Trump would win in a rematch of 2020. Ironically, or perhaps auspiciously, I erroneously titled that prediction ‘2016 2’ when I should have written 2020 2. Now that Biden is no longer a candidate that title is more appropriate given that the rematch this year is between Donald J Trump and a democratic woman with a law degree rather than him and Biden.
To start, I’ve always rejected the view that Trump’s victory in 2016 was an expression of hate and sexism. If that were the case, if the American people had such low views ties that they would rather elect someone as pugnacious as Trump than a woman, then democracy as a project has already failed. Instead, the race should be viewed as insurgent versus establishment. It is hard to find a profession more overrepresented in American politics than law, and what is more central to the Establishment than upholding its laws? Harris seems to me a peer of Clinton’s; a sort of west coast mirror to Hillary.
I consider myself somewhat knowledgeable on American politics and do try to keep up with what is going on, but I can’t say I know much about Harris. She seems to have kept a low profile, which I think is a good thing given the impending presidential race, but it also means that it is hard to know what to make of her chances. On one hand, anyone will have an easier time drumming up support from the democrats than Biden, on the other hand Trump is as I always say one of the few genuinely popular American politicians which have a genuine grass roots movement behind them. Will Trump’s successes or sins be top of mind for voters come November?
The 2016 comparison is admittedly crude, there are plenty of differences between then and now, not least of which is that almost everyone was so sure that Clinton would win that the commentariat was blind to just how popular Trump was. The republican party is now completely unified in their support of Trump, and it is not yet clear what the democratic party thinks of Harris, or indeed if they will simply accept Biden’s final wish: that Harris takes his place.
I think Trump will still win. I am nowhere near certain of that, but it is still my baseline assumption. But things can change, and Biden dropping out is an unqualified good for American democracy irrespective of who ends up occupying the White House come February. I said in last week’s post that anti-democratic sentiment is a bi-partisan issue, and that is still the case, if to a lesser degree. The primary system is in my view atrocious, but it is the system currently in place, so it seems wrong for Biden to grandfather in his preferred candidate when there was already a process to pick one. Unlike Trump, Harris has not had to build a grassroots following. The race is certainly more interesting and less certain now.
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I've always been interested in politics, economics, and the interplay between. The blog is a place for me to explore different ideas and concepts relating to economics or politics, be that national or international. The goal for the blog is to make you think; to provide new perspectives.
Written by Karl Johansson
Cover photo by Inga Seliverstova from Pexels, edited by Karl Johansson
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